**28/03/08 - 13:30h** Ciclo de Palestras Pós Graduação em Estatística UFRJ

["Alexandra M. Schmidt" <alex@im.ufrj.br>]

Caros, 

Dando continuidade as atividades do Ciclo de Palestras do Programa de Pós-
Graduação em Estatística do IM-UFRJ, teremos, excepcionalmente, 

nesta **6a feira, 28/03**, as **13:30h** o

Palestrante:  Trevor Bailey (Exeter)
Titulo: "Spatial survival modelling in animal disease epidemics"

Local: Sala C-116, Centro de Tecnologia, Cidade Universitária.

Resumo:
The potentially large economic impacts of animal disease epidemics have been 
highlighted in recent years through outbreaks such as foot-and-mouth disease 
(FMD) in the UK during 2001. This talk reports work from a project with the 
Veterinary Laboratories Agency (VLA), Weybridge, UK which was concerned with 
use of survival modelling to develop dynamic space-time predictions of 
survivor and hazard functions for individual farm premises as an FMD 
epidemic progresses. Such survival analyses could provide powerful insights 
into the patterns of infection, and assist in optimising various aspects of 
the operational response activities, such as targeting of `at-risk' 
premises. The talk will discuss and compare various possible model 
formulations using both simulated and real data based on the 2001 UK FMD 
epidemic and then go on to illustrate how model predictions may be used to 
refine response activities. 

Atenciosamente,

Alexandra

Ps.: Desculpem-me pela eventual duplicação da postagem desta mensagem.

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Alexandra Mello Schmidt, PhD
Professora Adjunta
Instituto de Matemática - UFRJ
Departamento de Métodos Estatísticos
Caixa Postal 68530 Rio de Janeiro - RJ 
CEP:21.945-970 Brasil
Tel: 0055 21 2562 7505 Ramal (Extension) 204
Fax: 0055 21 2562 7374

http://www.dme.ufrj.br/~alex
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There is no time to lose. Cash your dreams before they slip away. 
Lose your dreams and you lose your mind.
Gentileza gera gentileza (Profeta Gentileza).