Spatial survival modelling in animal disease epidemics

["Clarice G.B. Demetrio" <clarice@carpa.ciagri.usp.br>]

Data: 11/04/2008 as 16h
Local: Departamento de Ciencias Exatas, ESALQ/USP

Spatial survival modelling in animal disease
epidemics
Trevor Bailey (University of Exeter, Inglaterra)

The potentially large economic impacts  of animal disease
epidemics have been highlighted in recent years through outbreaks
such as foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in the UK during 2001. This
talk reports work from a project with the Veterinary Laboratories
Agency (VLA), Weybridge, UK which was concerned with use of
survival modelling to develop dynamic space-time predictions of
survivor and hazard functions for individual farm premises as an
FMD epidemic progresses. Such survival analyses could
provide powerful insights into the patterns of infection, and
assist in optimising various aspects of the operational response
activities, such as targeting of `at-risk' premises. The talk will
discuss and compare various possible model formulations using both
simulated and real data based on the 2001 UK FMD epidemic and then go on to
illustrate how
model predictions may be used to refine response
activities.




-- 
Clarice Garcia Borges Demétrio
Departamento de Ciências Exatas
Escola Superior de Agricultura "Luiz de Queiroz"
Universidade de São Paulo,
13418-900 Piracicaba, SP
Brasil
phone: 55 19 34294144 R216


Biometry, the active pursuit of biological knowledge by quantitative
methods.? ? R.A. Fisher, 1948