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Seminário do
Grupo de Inferência Bayesiana (GIB-UFSCar/USP)
22/05/2009-14
horas ( horário)
Sala de seminários do Departamento de Estatística- UFSCar-São Carlos-SPTítulo: A Bayesian Approach For Predicting Match Outcomes: The 2006 Soccer World Cup Tournament Case autores: Adriano Kamimura Suzuki; Luis Ernesto Bueno Salasar (
conferencista); José Galvão Leite; Francisco Louzada Neto
Resumo:
In this paper we propose a Bayesian methodology for predicting match
outcomes. The methodology is illustrated on the 2006 Soccer World
Cup. As prior information we make use of the specialists' opinions
and the FIFA ratings. The method is applied to calculate the
victory, draw and defeat probabilities at each match and also to
simulate the whole competition in order to estimate classification
probabilities in group stage and winning tournament chances for each
team. The prediction capability of the proposed methodology is
stated by the DeFinetti measure and by the percentage of correct
forecasts.
Estão todos convidados para este seminário especial às
14:00 h. Abraços,
Josemar |