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Caros Colegas, E' com prazer que anuncio o mini-curso "Statistics and Climate", a ser ministrado pelo Professor Peter Guttorp (University of Washington, EUA e Norwegian Computing Center), realizado pelo Programa de Pos Graduacao em Estatistica, como atividade do Programa de Verao 2012 do IM-UFRJ. As aulas serao nos dias 03, 06 e 08/02 das 13:30h as 15:30h, no Laboratorio de Sistemas Estocasticos (LSE), sala I-044b. Inscricoes podem ser feitas atraves do email posgrad@im.ufrj.br ate' o dia 03/02. A ementa do curso segue abaixo. Desculpem-me por eventual postagem duplicada. Bom final de semana! Abracos Alexandra Mini-curso: Statistics and Climate Professor Peter Guttorp (University of Washington, EUA e Norwegian Computing Center) Dias: 03,06 e 08/02 das 13:30h as 15:30h Local: Laboratorio de Sistemas Estocasticos (LSE), sala I-044b, Centro de Tecnologia, UFRJ Ementa do Curso 1. Climate models After a short description of the structure of general circulation models, we discuss some of the uses of them, such as detection of climate change, attribution of causes to observed changes, and comparison to historical data. We will talk about data sources, data quality, and other data issues. While general circulation models in some sense represent the best current understanding of earth system science, they have many issues that they are unable to deal with. In particular, climatic activities that happen at scales finer than those of the models are not included, or not well described. Examples include cloud formation and precipitation. We describe different approaches to downscaling GCMs to regional and local scales. 2. Evidence for anthropogenic climate change We outline the main sources of evidence that the climate is changing, and that a leading cause is anthropogenically based increases in some greenhouse gases. We also look at some of the main arguments put forward by skeptics. 3. Statistical challenges in climate research We describe recent estimates of global temperature. The degree to which carbon dioxide can be used to explain observed changes can be assessed using time series approaches. Some statistical tools needed to compare regional climate models to data are disussed and illustrated with temperature and precipitation data from Sweden and Norway. Finally, we will discuss the issue of extremes, how to model extremes in the context of nonstationary space-time systems, and illustrate how hypotheses generated by general circulation model runs. -- -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-* Alexandra Mello Schmidt, PhD Diretora Adjunta Pos-Graduacao do IM Instituto de Matemática - UFRJ Caixa Postal 68530 Rio de Janeiro - RJ CEP:21.945-970 Brasil Tel: 0055 21 2562 7505 Ramal (Extension) 204 Fax: 0055 21 2562 7374 http://www.dme.ufrj.br/~alex -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-* Cash your dreams before they slip away. Lose your dreams and you lose your mind (From the "God of Small things"). Gentileza gera gentileza (Profeta Gentileza) |