Seminário do Programa de Pós-Graduação em Estatística da UFPE - 2013

[Francisco Cysneiros <cysneiros@de.ufpe.br>]

Seminário do Programa de Pós-Graduação em Estatística da UFPE - 2013

 

Título: : "Weighted Sets of Probabilities and Minimax Weighted Expected
Regret: New Approaches for Representing Uncertainty and Making Decisions"

 

Pesquisador: "    Joseph Y. Halpern - Cornell University

 

 

Data: 21 de março de 2013 (quinta-feira)

Horário: 16:00 horas

Local: : Anfiteatro do Depto. de Eletrônica e Sistemas, 4o. andar do Bloco Escolar do CTG

 

Resumo: "Suppose that an agent's uncertainty is represented by

a set of probability measures, rather than a
single measure.
How should that the agent update her uncertainty
when she acquires new
information?  The obvious approach,
measure-by-measure updating,
is well-known to suffer from problems; agents are
not always able
to learn appropriately.  To deal with these
problems, we propose using
weighted sets of probabilities: a representation
where each measure
is associated with a weight, which denotes its
significance.
We describe a natural approach to updating in such
a situation and a
natural approach to determining the weights.
 We then show how
this representation can be used in
decision-making, by modifying
a standard approach to decision making --
minimizing expected regret
-- to obtain minimax weighted expected regret
(MWER).  We provide an
axiomatization that characterizes preferences
induced by MWER
both in the static and dynamic case. This
represents joint work with
Samantha Leung."

Biografia: "    Joseph Y. Halpern
received a B.Sc. in mathematics from
the University of Toronto in 1975 and a Ph.D. in
mathematics from
Harvard in 1981. He joined the IBM Almaden
Research Center in 1982,
where he remained until 1996. He served as manager
of the Mathematics
and Related Computer Science Department at IBM
from 1988-1990 and was
a consulting professor at Stanford from 1984-1996.
In 1996, he moved
to Cornell University, where he is a professor in
Computer Science.

He has coauthored 5 patents, two books
("Reasoning About Knowledge"
and "Reasoning about Uncertainty"), and
well over 100 journal
publications and 100 conference publications. He
was designated Highly
Cited Researcher by the Institute for Scientific
Information. Prof.
Halpern received the Publishers' Prize for Best
Paper at the
International Joint Conference on Artificial
Intelligence in 1985
(joint with Ronald Fagin) and in 1989, the 1997
Godel Prize (joint
with Yoram Moses), and two IBM Outstanding
Innovation Awards. He is a
Fellow of AAAI (American Association of Artificial
Intelligence), AAAS
(American Association for the Advancement of
Science), and ACM
(Association for Computing Machinery). He was
editor-in-chief of
Journal of the ACM, and currently serves on the
editorial board of
Journal of Logic and Computation, Games and
Economic Behavior, and
Artificial Intelligence."

-- 
Francisco José A. Cysneiros

Associate professor 

Vice Head of the Graduate Program in Statistics

Departament of Statistics

UFPE