Sim, uma conciliação é possível

[Francisco Cribari <cribari@de.ufpe.br>]

[*** O Ministério da Saúde adverte: quem não tiver senso de humor, por
favor vá direto para a tecla "Delete". ***] 


Inspirado pelo paper do Fraser, que aborda três problemas importantes a
partir de metodologias distintas, decidi compilar uma lista de artigos
(ver abaixo) que abordam um problema atual e de elevado interesse no
nosso país. Notem que os artigos usam metodologias distintas, mas, em
sua grande maioria, chegam à mesma inferência, o que sugere que
correntes diferentes do pensamento estatístico não precisam ser
necessariamente vistas como excludentes. 

A lista dos artigos: 

[1] Pacheco, Cecílio. (2007). Who killed Taís Grimaldi? A Bayesian
proof. Submitted for publication. 

Abstract: In this paper we reveal who killed Taís Grimaldi. The proof is
divided into three separate sections. Using Bayesian arguments, we first
show that Taís Grimaldi is indeed dead. In the second segment of the
proof, we prove that God exists. Finally, the proof is completed by a
conversation with God, in which He reveals who killed Taís Grimaldi. In
future research we shall talk to Him about other stuff. 

[2] Caramba, Felício. (2007). Who killed Taís Grimaldi? An answer from
higher order asymptotics. Submitted for publication.

Abstract. We solve the problem by letting the number of observations go
to infinity, i.e., we kill all of the remaining soap opera characters.
After that step, they are all dead and there is no need to know who
killed Taís Grimaldi, which completes the proof. 

[3] Camarada, Fernando. (2007). Who killed Taís Grimaldi? An answer from
empirical Bayes. Submitted for publication.

Abstract: According to both die-hard Bayesians and frequentists (see
Pacheco, 2007, and Caramba, 2007), Taís Grimaldi is dead. Therefore, she
is dead. 

[4] Sampaio, Dagoberto. (2007). Is Taís Grimaldi really dead? A
counter-proof from objective Bayes. Submitted for publication.

Abstract: The proof can be summarized as follows. In the soap opera,
Taís Grimaldi is portrayed by Alessandra Negrini, who is alive.
Therefore, Taís Grimaldi is alive. And even better: this proof pisses
off both Bayesians and frequentists. 

[5] Cabrini, Fernando. (2007). Who killed Taís Grimaldi? An answer using
bootstrap. Submitted for publication. 

Abstract: We resample Taís Grimaldi B times (B is a large positive
integer) and we kill her on all B occasions. We are, thus, 100% sure
that she is dead. And we know who killed her: it was the the damn
bootstrap!

--
Francisco Cribari-Neto               voice: +55-81-21267425
Departamento de Estatistica          fax:   +55-81-21268422
Universidade Federal de Pernambuco   e-mail: cribari@de.ufpe.br
Recife/PE, 50740-540, Brazil         web: www.de.ufpe.br/~cribari

  "I took a speed reading course and read 'War and Peace' in twenty
   minutes. It involves Russia."                      --Woody Allen