|
Seminário do
Grupo de Inferência Bayesiana (GIB)
27/06/2008-14
horas
Sala de seminários do Departamento de Estatística- UFSCar-São Carlos-SP
Resumo:
Over the
years, crop insurance program became the focus of agricultural policy in U.S.,
Spain, Mexico, and
more recently in Brazil. Given the increasing interest in insurance,
accurate calculation
of the premium rate is of great importance. We address the crop-yield
distribution issue and its
implications to pricing an insurance contract considering the dynamic
structure of the data
and incorporating the spatial correlation in the Hierarchical Bayesian
framework. Results show
that empirical (insurers) rates are higher in low risk areas and lower in high
risk areas. Such methodological improvement is primarily important in situations of limited data. |