RE: [ABE-L]: Bayes x Fisher, Neyman e Pearson - livros porretas

[Julio Stern <jmstern@hotmail.com>]

Caros: 

Algumas pessoas me perguntaram como acessar estes artigos. 
As revistas onde mesmos foram publicados sao Open Access. 
Os links de acesso sao: 

> J.M.Stern (2011). Constructive Veri cation, Empirical Induction, and 
> Falibilist Deduction: A Threefold Contrast. Information, 2, 635-650.

 http://www.mdpi.com/2078-2489/2/4/635 

Ha tambem uma traducao deste, disponivel (com alguns typos 
resultantes da traducao automatica de LaTeX para MS-Word) 

J.M.Stern (2011). Verificação Construtiva, Indução Empírica e Dedução 
Falibilista: Um Triplo Contraste. Aspectos de Lógica e Teoria da Ciência
 

http://www.ime.usp.br/~jstern/papers/papersJS/JMSIEA25.pdf 

O link para o segundo artigo, eh: 

> J.M.Stern (2011). Symmetry, Invariance and Ontology in Physics 
> and Statistics. Symmetry, 3, 3, 611-635.
 

http://www.mdpi.com/2073-8994/3/3/611 

Grato a todos que manifestaram interesse. 
Aguardo vossos comentarios. 
---Julio Stern 



> From: jmstern@hotmail.com
> To: pam@ime.usp.br; abe-l@ime.usp.br; basiliopereira@gmail.com
> Date: Wed, 22 Aug 2012 00:56:55 +0000
> Subject: RE: [ABE-L]: Bayes x Fisher, Neyman e Pearson - livros porretas
> 
> 
> 
> Caros: 
> 
> Para quem se interessa pelo assunto 
> (inferencia comparada e historia da estatistica) 
> acabo de publicar dois artigos a respeito: 
> 
> J.M.Stern (2011). Symmetry, Invariance and Ontology in Physics 
> and Statistics. Symmetry, 3, 3, 611-635.
> 
> J.M.Stern (2011). Constructive Veri cation, Empirical Induction, and 
> Falibilist Deduction: A Threefold Contrast. Information, 2, 635-650.
> 
> Comentarios sao muito bem vindos. 
> 
> No segundo artigo, e em outros ja publicados, tento olhar tambem para 
> o trabalho de Charles Saunders Peirce, a quem se deve o credito 
> (poucas vezes reconhecido) de introduzir Randomozacao em Estatistica. 
> Peirce adiantou tambem muitas da ideias basicas referentes a 
> p-valores e probabilidades a posteriory. 
> 
> Novamente, comentarios seriam muito bem vindos. 
> 
> ---Julio Stern 
> 
> > Date: Tue, 21 Aug 2012 09:29:11 -0300
> > From: pam@ime.usp.br
> > To: abe-l@ime.usp.br
> > Subject: Re: [ABE-L]: Bayes x Fisher, Neyman e Pearson - livros porretas
> > 
> > Recomendo, também,
> > 
> > Fisher, Neyman, and the Creation of Classical Statistics,
> > 
> > de E. Lehmann.
> > 
> > 
> > Pedro
> > 
> > 
> > Sold by Amazon Citando Basilio de Bragança Pereira <basilio@hucff.ufrj.br>:
> > 
> > > Finalmente terminei a leitura de dois livros importantes para conhecer o
> > > desenvolvimento da estatistica frequentista e Bayesiana ( Bamburismus
> > > segundo Turing e Good). Recomendo ambos
> > >
> > > 1) Lehman -2011- Fisher , Neyman , and the Classical Statistics , Springer
> > > Ficamos sabendo que todos os fundamentos da estatistica frequentista estao
> > > contidos em 2 artigos de Fisher (1922 Phil. Trans. A e 1925 Proc. Camb
> > > Phil. Soc) e a teoria dos testes de hipotese em 5 artigos de Neyman e
> > > Pearson (1928 Biometrika 1933a Phil Trans of Roy Soc, 1933b Proc Camb Phil
> > > Soc. 1936 e 1938 Stat Research Memoirs)
> > > Esta tudo la : suficiencia , ancilaridade , likelihood , razao de
> > > verossimilhanca , hipotese altenativas e nulas, regioes de rejeiçao ,
> > > testes mais poderosios , nao viciados etc).
> > > Esses caras foram geniais .
> > >
> > > 2) McGrayne - 2011- The Theory That Would Not Dye ( How Bayes ´rule cracked
> > > the enigma code , hunted down russian submarines e emerged triumphant from
> > > two centuries of controversy)
> > > Alem da historia da discussao nos dois ultimos seculos , a ultima Parte V
> > > -Victory e seus dois capitulos Eureka e Rosseta Stones mostram como o
> > > paradigma da estatistica foi implementado e como Bayes esta entranhado no
> > > nosso dia a dia desde consevaçao na natureza a nosso uso do computado .
> > >
> > > Algumas perolas que vao deixar os frequentistas de plantao na lista
> > > arrepiados sao :
> > >
> > > i) Adrian"Smith became the first Bayesian president of the Royal
> > > Statistical Society in 1995. Three years later he stunned his friends by
> > > quitting statistics to become an administrator of the University of London.
> > > A proponent of evidence-based medicine, he wanted to help develop
> > > evidence-based public policy too. Dismayed colleagues chastised him for
> > > abandoning Bayes' rule. But Smith told Lindley that all the problems of
> > > statistics had been solved. We have the paradigm, he said, and with MCMC we
> > > know how to implement it. He told Diaconis that there was nothing else to
> > > do with statistical problems but to plug them into a computer and turn the
> > > Bayesian crank"".
> > >
> > > ii)"Lindley had predicted that the twenty-first century would be a Bayesian
> > > era because the superior logic of Bayes' rule would swamp frequency-based
> > > methods. David Blackwell at Berkeley disagreed, saying, --If the Bayesian
> > > approach does grow in the statistical world, it will not be because of the
> > > influence of other statisticians but because of the influence of actuaries,
> > > engineers, business people, and others who actually like the Bayesian
> > > approach and use it. It appeared that Blackwell was right: pragmatism could
> > > drive a paradigm shift. Philosophies of science had not changed. The
> > > difference was that Bayes finally worked."
> > >
> > > iii)'most modern Bayesians accept that the frequentism of Fisher, Neyman,
> > > and Egon Pearson is still effective for most statistical problems: for
> > > simple and standard analyses"
> > >
> > > v) "Prominent frequentists have also moderated their positions. Bradley
> > > Efron, a National Medal of Science recipient who wrote a classic defense of
> > > frequentism in 1986, recently told a blogger, --I've always been a Bayesian..
> > > Efron, who helped develop empirical Bayesian procedures while remaining a
> > > committed frequentist, told me that Bayes is --one of the great branches of
> > > statistical inference. . ."
> > >
> > > Confesso Pedro Morettin tinha razao em mensagem que me enviou reclameando
> > > do meu despreso por livros grossos .
> > > O livro mais grosso da McGrayyne me induziu que a soluçao e o futuro esta
> > > com estatistica Bayesiana ( atençao a autora é jornalista e tambem se
> > > aprende muito ingles com seu texto)
> > >
> > > Finalmente , a implementaçao do paradigma Bayesiano deve muito aos artigos
> > >
> > > - Gelfand, A. E.; Smith, A. F. M. (1990). "Sampling-Based Approaches to
> > > Calculating Marginal Densities". *Journal of the American Statistical
> > > Association* *85* (410): 398-409.
> > > doi<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_object_identifier>
> > > :10.2307/2289776 <http://dx.doi.org/10.2307%2F2289776>.
> > > edit<http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Template:Cite_doi/10.2307.2F2289776&action=edit&editintro=Template:Cite_doi/editintro2>
> > >
> > >
> > > - N.J. Gordon, D.J. Salmond, and A.F.M. Smith. "Novel Approach to
> > > Nonlinear/Non-Gaussian Bayesian State Estimation." IEE Proceedings-F, 140,
> > > 107-113, 1993.
> > >
> > > alem de alguns anteriores do proprio Adrian sobre calculo de integrais para
> > > a regra de Bayes
> > >
> > > Boas leituras aos redistas
> > >
> > > Basilio
> > >
> > > --
> > >
> > > Basilio de Bragança Pereira ,DIC and PhD(Imperial College), DL(COPPE)
> > > *UFRJ-Federal University of Rio de Janeiro
> > > *Titular Professor of Bioestatistics and of Applied Statistics
> > > *FM-School of Medicine and COPPE-Posgraduate School of Engineering and
> > > HUCFF-University Hospital Clementino Fraga Filho.
> > >
> > > *Tel: 55 21 2562-7045/7047/2618/2558
> > > www.po.ufrj.br/basilio/
> > >
> > > *MailAddress:
> > > COPPE/UFRJ
> > > Caixa Postal 68507
> > > CEP 21941-972 Rio de Janeiro,RJ
> > > Brazil
> > >
> > 
> > 
> > Pedro Morettin <pam@ime.usp.br>